Sunday, April 26, 2020

If You Are Over Forty, We Are Likely Political Enemies

My friend called it a "snarky remark." To me, it was an observation. He said there was an "implication" made that he was not concerned about the welfare of young people. I said what I meant forthright. 

It seems hypocritical to me for older people to complain about others not being concerned about their existence, and not supporting 83% of the people under the age of 29 who are worried about their long-term existence. It seems to lack intellectual integrity when the candidate whose disappointing end to her campaign didn't support what either old people or young people need to exist.

To this, I was told, "I disagree." 

That's not even a good bumper sticker.

Another friend, this one from high school, told me that my unwillingness to vote for Biden sounds like I am supporting Trump. I told her that her remaining silent and going along with whatever the party does seems much more to me like she is supporting Trump. 

She told me that the most important thing is to get Trump out of office. I agreed and told her the best way to do it would be to get in line with the people who are under 29, like our children and grandchildren. She said that she wasn't as concerned about who went up against Trump, that is who she would support.

I explained that I cannot go along with that reasoning. I have been yelling about the need for rank and file to demand that Tom Perez resign, and the DNC be reset for the purpose of backing its most popular candidate to oust Trump. She said I was "overthinking" the problem. 

When I showed her the difference between what Sanders, Biden, and Trump will all carry into the election, she was less concerned that Biden and Trump have a lot of similarities than she was with Biden's name isn't Trump. I told her that if she did not demand a fair nomination process, then, with all due respect, her opinion on party unity lacks credibility with me. 

A couple of my friends who have supported other candidates who have suspended their presidential campaigns are suddenly supporting Governor Andrew Cuomo. The most recent stupid comment by him was about the "pace of doubling slowing down" because it took six days to double it last time, and this time it took seven days. Now, I don't want to disappoint all you people who understand that seven is bigger than six, but the more significant part of that statistic is the "doubling."

The power of doubling is immense. If you were to start with a penny and double it each day for thirty days, you would be making well over a million dollars a day by the 30th day. So, from January to thirteen days ago, whatever that number was doubled in six days. The result of that doubling doubled in seven days. The number of cases per day is almost two-to-one this past week compared to the previous week. 

That isn't a slowing of the pace. We are still on the front side of the bell curve, and we have not yet hit the most vertical incline as yet. The pace is still accelerating, and the curve is not yet flattening. 

He seems to be wanted by the people who don't want Biden, and who also don't want to concede to the existential needs of our youngest generations. Cuomo is a tough-talking New Yorker who doesn't understand things, so I don't know why he appeals so much to people want to defeat a tough-talking New Yorker who doesn't understand things. 

The common denominator of all the people who are looking to these alternatives to the best bet to oust Trump in November is that they are all in their early-forties to early-seventies. Whether they disagreed, didn't care who was nominated, or really like the new guy on TV, they are holding onto their prejudices that Sanders should not be the nominee despite that he is the only candidate who is going to draw the votes of most of his supporters. 

Some people think I am being combative when I suggest that this has to be done by ballots or it will be done with bullets, but that should be considered more of a prediction than a threat. In the spirit of Karl Marx, there will reach a point that the masses will revolt against the few who try to deny them the rights humans deserve. If the revolution does become violent, or, worse yet, if anarchy begins taking hold, any of my fellow old people who did not support the revolution by ballot will regret not having spoken up.

Truth does not change; only the perception of truth changes.

I am picking this post back up after a bit more than a week of thinking about whether or not I should continue it. I must, of course, or I would not have picked it back up.

Tulsi Gabbard endorsed Joe Biden before Bernie Sanders suspended his campaign. He has since also endorsed Biden. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was the most noticeable member of the progressive movement to hold off endorsing Biden, but she, too, either has or will endorse him. To those who opposed Sanders, this seems to seal the deal that everyone now needs to get behind Biden so Trump can be defeated in November.

That's where the problem is. That conclusion lacks the gravitational factor in the equation. Here is how that works: by doing what Bernie's supporters have said the party was doing, the party essentially cast all those votes into space. The expectation that Bernie, Tulsi, and AOC can draw those votes back with the sounds of their voices defies gravity. Once these votes are cast into space, many of them will remain out there never to return.

This is another battle that the establishment won against the progressive wing, but I predict that Trump will win in a cakewalk over Biden. Again, we hear Cuomo's name. We are also hearing the names of Bill de Blasio and Gavin Newsome who are looking like they might be alternatives if Biden is truly as unfit to serve as he appears to be. They will not make the difference.

However, it is also being marketed that Biden's pick for vice president is more important person than Biden. I agree. Biden doesn't automatically get my vote. If his pick for vice president is a progressive leader (i.e., Tulsi Gabbard, Stacey Abrams, Nina Turner, Pramila Jayapal, et al), then he will get my vote. If he picks someone who I also would not vote for, then there is no motivation to vote for him simply because his term will likely be filled by someone else who I would not vote for.

This has never been about a disagreement over how destructive the Trump presidency has been. This has always been about who has the support necessary to accomplish the task of defeating him. The enthusiastic crowds that have been seen at Bernie's rallies, and the tremendous ground support network that has knocked on doors across the country, are not going to bring that energy out for Biden. They aren't going to do it for Cuomo, de Blasio, or Newsome, either.

That task needs to fall on those who said they would vote blue no matter who, and who then didn't demand a fair nominating process. It isn't about trying to shame me for my vote. First of all, I don't care what you think about me, even if we otherwise know, respect, and love one another. I understand the argument. Those who did not want Sanders regardless of who was nominated need to put in the footwork. Those who didn't care, and who were willing to figuratively vote for a lump of coal against Trump, can now prove that claim.

If you think that shaming anyone for their vote is effective, you learned nothing from 2016. The election is not won with the most votes. It is won through a formula that takes the popular vote state-by-state into account to determine a true majority. Washington state will vote for the lump of coal regardless of my individual vote. 

If you want to get the votes of progressive voters, most of whom are young voters, you can't spit on them. 

The most important things to young people are Medicare for All, the Green New Deal, and a resolution to income inequality. Trump is against all those things. So is Biden. When you start explaining the differences, both have children who have ethical conflicts, both have histories of being tough on those who have it the toughest, and Biden has told donors that there would be no fundamental changes. 

They don't need to be convinced that Trump is bad. They need to be listened to for what they demand in exchange for their votes. Many of the comments from Bernie's supporters that I read are about voting Green or forming a third party. There are some benefits to voting Green, but the political revolution must stay focused on taking over the identity of the Democratic party.

It won't matter that Bernie Sanders is urging his supporters to vote for Biden. He even called it "irresponsible" to do otherwise. It won't matter that Tulsi Gabbard is continuing to tell it like it is about why her supporters should vote for Biden. It won't even matter that Barack Obama is using his charm to appeal to young voters to vote for Biden. Each of them is being called traitors to the movement by those who are saying they will not vote for Biden. Those who are doing so, and who live in one of about six or seven strategic states, are the only votes that matter.

As a white man in his sixties, I am breaking from my demographic to side with young people. Old people would benefit from what young people believe is existential to them, but, unless everything is fine as it is, old people will not benefit with nothing fundamentally changing. It is illogical for old people, or anyone who is not in the top 1%, to support no fundamental changes. 

The shift in which candidate is most supported happens when voters hit the age of 40. Sanders is favored by voters younger than 40, and Biden is favored by voters older than 40. 

If you support Biden, and you did not call for Perez to resign, we are political enemies. Your opinion on party unity has no credibility because you did not support a fair nominating process. You need to get busy knocking on doors in the rust belt and the swing states in the south and east.

My guess is you won't, and my prediction is that Trump will beat Biden in November if he is the nominee. Don't try to sell me a bumper sticker; prove me wrong.